“I remember saying to my mentor, 'If I had more money, I would have a better plan.' He quickly responded, 'I would suggest that if you had a better plan, you would have more money.' You see, it's not the amount that counts; it's the plan that counts.” — Jim Rohn
Design features driving high $14.5 million cost
As of February 2024, publicly cited numbers put the current total cost at $14.5 million for the 4.25 mile extension of Sleeping Bear Heritage Trail, with TART Trails having raised $5 million, as of March 2024. The $14.5 million cost estimate for Segment 9 Sleeping Bear Heritage Trail, representing $3.4 million per mile, is without final design completed and no actual bids received. Costs could be more as bids are received. Roughly $10 million was spent for the first 22 miles of the existing Heritage Trail combined, representing a cost of less than $500,000 per mile. Segment 9 is 7x more expensive per mile than the previous trail construction and 30x more than the original cost projection .
While costs have risen due to pandemic shutdown, federal wage requirements, and general inflation, the most significant factor influencing the high cost of Segment 9 is not inflation but the extreme design features required to deal with the environmental aspects. It is just more expensive to build because of the construction requirements that are non-typical. In their engineering report, “Engineering Design Analysis of Recreational Opportunities in the Good Harbor Region,” Mansfield Land Use Consultants mentioned some of the design aspects adding to the cost of trail construction:
Substantial removal of State-protected Critical Dune Area and construction of retaining walls 25’ or more in height that extend 950’ long to hold back the steep slopes of large dunes,
Nearly 20% of the trail length requires elevated boardwalks over regulated wetlands, many of those with Truck Weighted Load Bearing capacity,
Relocation of the west end intersection of Traverse Lake Road, moving the road east 10’,
Constructing a bridge crossing over Shalda Creek, and
Costs associated with clearing 7,300 trees, earthwork, and paving of a 10’ asphalt path.
Original NPS cost estimate omissions
NPS provided cost information in the 2009 Trailway Plan and Environmental Assessment as a way to inform the public and help the public make informed decisions in evaluating the routes. Cost estimates for Segment 9 were included on page 131, Chapter 5. The total cost for Segment 9 was $477,776 for all 4.25 miles, making it one of the lowest costs per mile of any segment. $14.5 million is 30x the projected cost and there has not been 30x inflation over the last fifteen years. The estimated cost to build a separate off-road trail along 2.43 miles of Traverse Lake Road was $18,225. Keep in mind that an off-road trail in this section requires boardwalk construction, a bridge crossing, significant tree removal, and massive retaining walls. The information about projected costs in the 2009 EA was not accurately presented to the public.
On closer examination, one sees there is no money budgeted for building elevated boardwalks across regulated wetlands (18% of trail length), for building 15’ high retaining walls, or for a paved path alongside Traverse Lake Road. The public deserves accurate information to make informed decisions. Or perhaps NPS did not closely look at what environmental features were present along the proposed Segment 9 route or did not fully appreciate the engineering designs that would be needed. MDOT and TART Trails, while making an August 2023 presentation to the Little Traverse Lake Association annual meeting, still did not know how high the retaining walls needed to be along Traverse Lake Road - fifteen years later. That should be known in the initial planning stage so as to evaluate the impact and cost of a proposed route during the decision-making process.
Mansfield suggests engineering aspects contribute significantly to the high cost of the proposed Segment 9 trail (p 24):
“Other special considerations are yet unknown as to special elements being employed and their inclusive cost which may include: (1) Retaining Walls, some being 25’ high or more and undercutting State regulated Critical Dunes may reach cost of $1,500 - $2,000 per square foot; and (2) Truck Weight Rated Board Walks on helical pilings with unknown soil types and over pristine, untouched and unfragmented wetlands, could run as much as $2,500 - $3,000 a linear foot. These are expensive construction designs and applications due to the environmental features that are present.”
“Evaluation of engineering design costs, financial stewardship and cost accountability should be an important part of the trail planning process and the community decision making process. One of the challenges with Segment 9 is the various environmental features that require specific engineering design solutions and premium construction considerations. As a result, final costs after receiving construction bids may be higher than the projected cost. Consideration of alternative routes can be an important step in determining the best use of available funds.”
Putting cost into perspective
Sometimes dollar figures seem like play money, especially when it’s someone else’s money. Here is a perspective of the $14.5 million being spent for 4.25 miles of a 10’ wide path, or $3.4 million per mile.
$14.5 million is 1.6x the 2024 annual budget for Leelanau County Road Commission ($9 million) to maintain 170 miles of primary roads and 425 miles of local roads in the entire county. LCRC uses $750,000 per mile as a rough guide to reconstruct a road with base stabilization and repaving 20’ wide. The complete rebuilding of an entire 22’ road with base stabilization measures, even if costs $1 million per mile, is one-third the cost of building one mile of the proposed Segment 9 10’ path that is half the width.
$14.5 million is approaching the annual budget for all of Leelanau County government services ($18 million).
$14.5 million is double the annual budget for Leland Schools.
$14.5 million is 26x the annual budget for Cleveland Township.
$14.5 million is an average of $641 per person for the entire Leelanau County (population 22,000).
A key thing to consider in evaluating public projects is the cost versus benefit analysis based on demand. According to actual 2016 trail counts (most recently available public data), peak usage is less than 100 users per day. The Heritage Trail is mostly a visitor trail, where visitors drive to this area to use the trail. If there were 100 users per day, every day from May-October (180 days), that would be a very generous 18,000 users per year – or 360,000 over 20 years (peak demand does not last May-October). The projected $14.5 million cost, spread out over 360,000 users, would equate to $40 per user trip ($14.5M / (100 daily usage x 180 days x 20 years) for 20 years. Actual user data over the entire six months would likely be much lower, increasing the cost per user trip even more. It’s hard to justify the high cost of a high impact trail that has questionable demand for this 4.25 mile extension when 22 miles already exists and other feasible alternatives exist.
Cost savings of alternative options
Under the Alternatives Page of this website, several alternative options are presented that were analyzed by Mansfield Land Use Consultants as part of their engineering report. Any of these alternatives would result in a savings of $10 million or more. What other trail improvements could be done along the Heritage Trail with a savings of $10 million? Of course, the $14.5 million has yet to be raised in its entirety. However, enough funds have been raised to complete this year any of the alternatives presented. The alternatives are explored further on this website on a separate web page. Mansfield suggests that all of the alternatives below could be built as a comprehensive recreational trail system in the Good Harbor region and still result in a savings of $3 million as compared to the projected $14.5 million cost of the proposed Segment 9 route.
Alternative: Heritage Trail Walking Loop
This alternative would install a low-impact Heritage Walking Trail along Traverse Lake Road (1.5 miles) that connects to the existing Good Harbor Bay Hiking Trail and Picnic Area as well as the Swanson / Juniper Trails to create a looped network of walking trails that also has the user option to enjoy Lake Michigan beach.
6’ wide improved gravel trail -$135,040. Costs savings $14+ million.
Alternative: Accessing Good Harbor Bay via Bohemian Road / CR 669
This alternative would create access to Good Harbor bay by incorporating recreational opportunities along Bohemian Road / CR 669 (1.25 miles) including the option of continuing along Lake Michigan Road that parallels Good Harbor Bay (3.5 miles).
Design option: Add 5’ shoulders to each side - $150,000. Cost savings $14 + million.
Design option: Build an off-road trail within the county road right-of-way, in which there are no trees present (1.25 miles) - $2.5 million. Cost savings $12 million.
Design option: Extend trail along Lake Michigan Road (3.5 miles). One shared road design option is to pave the existing gravel road with additional shoulder width -$1.5 million.
If both an off road trail was built along Bohemian Road / CR 651 and Lake Michigan Road was also improved - $4 million. Cost savings $10.5 million.
Alternative: Utilize an improved shared road design for Traverse Lake Road and extend trail north along M-22
Implement safety design improvements to Traverse Lake Road (TLR) (2.43 miles) and extend trail north close to M-22 from TLR past Bufka Farm (total off -road trail 2.0 miles) - $4.0 million. Cost savings $10.5 million.
Alerternative: Off-road trail along the south/east side of M-22
Construct a separated trail along the south/east side of M-22 from Bohemian Road / CR 669 past Good Harbor Trail / CR 651 to a parking lot trailhead at Overby Road (5.0 miles) - $5.5 million. Cost savings $10 million
These alternatives could be built with the $5 million that has already been raised by Tart Trails, as of March 2024, including both the creation of a Heritage Trail Walking Loop and trail extensions along Good Harbor Bay via Bohemian Road / CR 669 and Lake Michigan Road. Securing additional funds would not be necessary.
